Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House? A Historical Perspective for First-Time Buyers
Have you found yourself wondering, “Should I wait to buy a house? What if prices drop? Is now even the right time?” You're not alone — and you're not the first to ask. In fact, that question has echoed across every decade since homeownership became a part of the American Dream.
The truth? There's never been a “perfect” time — but there is a smart time. And with a little historical context, you might just find your answer is clearer than you thought.
📹 [Watch the full video below for Amber’s personal homeownership journey and insights on market timing.]
The Power of Looking Back Before Moving Forward
While we don’t have a crystal ball to predict the next market move, we do have something just as powerful: decades of real data.
One of the most trusted sources for understanding home price trends is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Unlike median home price stats, this index tracks repeat sales on the same homes over time — meaning it reflects true appreciation, not just shifts in market composition.
So, what does history actually show us?
Let’s walk through some key decades:
📈 1943–1947: A Post-War Surge (Prices Up 118%)
After World War II, millions of veterans returned home ready to build families. With a historic housing shortage, low interest rates, and the GI Bill making loans accessible, demand exploded. Home prices soared by 118% in just four years.
🔑 Key takeaway: High demand and tight supply drive appreciation — even in uncertain times.
📈 1974–1979: Another Boom Despite High Inflation (Prices Up 93%)
In the mid-70s, mortgage rates were climbing, inflation was rampant, and yet... home values still surged. Why? The Baby Boomer generation was entering prime buying age. Strong demand outweighed economic noise.
🔑 Key takeaway: Even in tough financial climates, demographics matter.
📉 2007–2011: The Housing Crash Most Remember
Everyone remembers the Great Recession. During this time, home values dropped for five straight years — the only major prolonged correction in modern history.
But here’s what many overlook: by 2019, most markets had fully recovered. And by today, values in many areas are nearly double what they were at the 2006 peak.
🔑 Key takeaway: Long-term ownership recovers and rewards.
🖼️ See the full picture:
The Case-Shiller Index shows that despite downturns, home values have consistently trended upward over time.
📈 2020–2021: Double-Digit Gains (Again)
Yes, prices jumped sharply during the pandemic. But contrary to fears, this does not guarantee a crash ahead. In fact, history shows us that price booms — when backed by demand and limited supply — often reset, not collapse.
🔑 Key takeaway: Surging prices alone don’t signal disaster.
Amber’s Personal Homeownership Journey (And Lessons for You)
Let me share a bit of my story — because even with 20+ years in the mortgage industry, I can say this with certainty: You cannot perfectly time the market.
🏡 2013: Our First Purchase
We bought our first home in 2013 — well after the housing market had already started to recover. Prices had already climbed, but we weren’t focused on what we missed.
We asked:
What can we afford monthly?
How much space do we need?
Does this fit our life right now?
That mindset guided our decision — and we were thankful we made it.
🏡 2021: Our Next Move, Mid-Boom
Fast-forward nearly a decade, we bought again. This time, during a time of double-digit appreciation yet again. Still, we asked the same questions: Does this fit our life today and where we’re going in the next 5 years?
It wasn’t about “the perfect price” — it was about the perfect fit.
💡 Refinance + Resilience
In 2015, we used a cash-out refinance to consolidate debt. We weighed the pros and cons and decided restructuring made financial sense for us.
In 2023, we faced an unexpected drop in income and had to request a loan modification.
Homeownership gave us options — refinancing, restructuring, tapping equity — that renting would never have allowed.
✅ Expert Quote from Amber Jones:
“Very few people buy at the bottom or sell at the top — and that’s okay. Real estate isn’t about perfect timing. It’s about long-term equity, flexibility, and having a home that fits your season of life.”
So... Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House?
Here’s what history — and real experience — tell us:
The market always fluctuates, but long-term appreciation is the trend.
Trying to time the market is nearly impossible.
Buying based on your life needs and budget today is always a smart move.
Homeownership offers tools and options (like refinancing or equity access) that renting doesn’t.
What First-Time Buyers Should Focus On Instead of “Timing”
Rather than asking when to buy, ask:
🔍 What’s my monthly budget?
📦 How much space does my household need?
🗓️ Where do I see myself in 5–7 years?
🏘️ Am I ready to build equity and stability?
Most homeowners move or refinance every 7–10 years. The goal isn’t to hit the jackpot — it’s to buy smart for the season of life you’re in.
📞 Ready to Take the Next Step?
Whether it’s your first home or your next, I’m here to help you:
Understand your options
Answer your questions
Make a plan that fits your life, not just the market
👉 Book a free 15-minute call with me today — www.loansbyamberjones.com/book-a-call
❓FAQ: Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House?
Q: What if home prices drop after I buy?
A: History shows prices fluctuate short-term but rise long-term. If your monthly payment is affordable and the home fits your needs, it's still a smart decision.
Q: Should I wait for interest rates to go down?
A: You can always refinance later. Focus first on affordability, then optimize your rate when possible.
Q: What if I don’t stay in the home long-term?
A: If you plan to move in less than 3–5 years, weigh closing costs and market trends carefully — but many buyers still gain equity in that time.
Q: Is renting safer right now?
A: Renting offers flexibility, but no equity growth or control over rising costs. Homeownership provides long-term financial tools and stability.
